Nigeria vs Benin: Super Eagles get World Cup boost as CAF announces new qualification criteria

The Super Eagles have been handed a boost in their World Cup qualifying bid after CAF confirmed the new requirements for finishing as one of the four best second-placed teams. 

The playoff route was previously closed to Nigeria after it became mathematically impossible to finish as one of the four best second-placed teams. However, Eritrea pulled out of the competition, hence forcing CAF to rejig the criteria for fairness. This has handed Nigeria an added lifeline. 

The new parameters for determining the best four second-placed teams according to a CAF circular are as follows:

• There will be 9 second-placed teams, one from each group.

• To compare them fairly, the results against the last-placed team in each group are not counted.

• This means only matches against the top five teams in each group are used for comparison.

• Exception: Group E has only 5 teams because Eritrea withdrew.

• Therefore, for Group E, all results will count, as there is no sixth team to exclude.

• After this adjustment, the best runners-up are ranked using the same tie-breaking criteria found in Article 11.5 of the FIFA World Cup 2026 Regulations (e.g., points, goal difference, goals scored, etc).

Currently, on 14, the maximum amount of points the Super Eagles can collect in Group C is 17, with only one match left. With six other teams having crossed that mark, the playoff route was effectively closed for Nigeria. 

The only path to qualification required Nigeria to beat the Benin Republic in the final game by a 1-0 scoreline or a margin of two should the Cheetahs score. And that only matters if South Africa fails to beat Zimbabwe. Tough. 

With the new criteria for qualifying for the playoffs, however, the points have to be recalculated, and the Super Eagles have a fresh chance.

As it stands, Gabon (16 points), Cameroon (14 points), Madagascar (13 points), and DR Congo (13 points) are currently better positioned to finish in the playoffs than Nigeria, who will have 12 points after the two points against Zimbabwe are deducted. 

More importantly, Nigeria are better positioned than Group C’s current second place, South Africa, who will be on 11 points if results against Zimbabwe are deducted. 

In summary, a victory for South Africa against Rwanda would have been fatal, whether the Super Eagles beat the Benin Republic or not. However, with the playoffs route now reopened, a victory against Benin would take Nigeria to 15 points in that regard, and that might be enough.