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Borussia Dortmund have the edge over Bayern Munich in Bundesliga and for the first time in a long time, it looks like they might actually end up as champions
Borussia Dortmund find themselves top of the Bundesliga in an unlikely title race after being 8th in the league standings at some point this season.
Their form post-World Cup break has been exceptional in the league, leaving them on the brink of Bundesliga glory for the first time in more than a decade.
Standing in the way of their league success are perennial Bundesliga winners Bayern Munich, who aim for an 11th successive Bundesliga crown but have stuttered from their usual excellence this season under two managers.
With Borussia Dortmund leading the table by a solitary point with five games to go, we look at three key details pointing to BVB remaining at the top of the league at the end of the campaign rather than faltering to another second-place finish to the Bavarians.
Dortmund have rarely been this close, this late in the season
With their win against Frankfurt in the last weekend to take advantage of Bayern slipping up against Mainz, Dortmund climbed to the top of the Bundesliga table after 29 Gameweeks, the latest in a Bundesliga season that they have found themselves leading the league since they were champions in the 2011/12 season under Jurgen Klopp.
With only five games to go, Dortmund only have to hold their nerve, and see out the remaining fixtures to become champions at the end of the season.
Dortmund are peaking at the right time, Bayern are not
Judging by Dortmund’s early season form, they should be nowhere near a title race, but a combination of other contenders faltering and BVB upping their game in the business end of the season has seen them claw their way back into contention.
Dortmund have only dropped points on three occasions since the start of the new year, with two draws and only one loss (away to Bayern) in 14 league games in that period.
Bayern Munich, on the other hand, have dropped points seven times in the same time period, losing three times, including twice in the last five Bundesliga games of which they have won only two.
Not even a managerial change has helped the Bavarians’ form as they have only managed two wins in all competitions under new boss Thomas Tuchel while losing three times, - one in each competition - in that stretch of games.
Borussia Dortmund’s recent superb form has also seen them win nine consecutive home fixtures, more than they have done in any other Bundesliga campaign, and with three of their remaining five league games to be played at the Signal Iduna, they will be confident of getting maximum points in those games at least to further their title charge.
Dortmund have more players in good form
Borussia Dortmund’s Donyell Malen has been in sensational form as the season draws to a close and with his five consecutive scoring appearances for BVB in the Bundesliga he has hit a level not seen since Erling Haaland scored six in a row for them in 2021.
In total, he has scored six goals in the last Bundesliga games for Dortmund and could be key for them as the campaign comes to an end.
For Bayern Munich, the players with the most goal involvements in the last five games are Thomas Muller, Matthijs De Ligt, and Kingsley Coman, who have directly contributed to two goals each.
No other Bayern Munich player has had a hand in more than one goal, with usual suspects like Serge Gnabry and Alphonso Davies failing to record a goal contribution in the last five games, while Leroy Sane has recorded only one assist with no goals, Sadio Mane, one goal with no assist, and first choice forward Erik-Macim Choupo Moting has battled injury and has barely been able to play.
They have scored only one goal in four of their last five Bundesliga games, and without the assurances of Manuel Neuer in goal, it means they have dropped points in some games where they would otherwise have won by a solitary goal.
In contrast, Dortmund have five players who have contributed to two or more goals in the last five games, including Malen, who has contributed to nine, left-back Raphael Guerrero, who has contributed to six, Sebastien Haller, who has scored three times, Marco Reus, who has scored twice, and Karim Adeyemi, who has provided two assists.
With a core of players producing the goods, Dortmund have the belief whenever they play that they can find a goal from somewhere, while Bayern sweat on the form of many of their established stars.
If the recent trend continues, then it would matter little that Bayern have the easier fixtures on paper, as Borussia Dortmund at this stage are in better shape to see out the rest of the campaign and clinch their first Bundesliga title since 2012, breaking Bayern Munich’s stronghold on the German top-flight.
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