Explainer: How Nigeria can qualify for the World Cup after draw against South Africa

The Super Eagles failed to beat South Africa in Bloemfontein, a crucial criterion to keep their World Cup dreams alive. Hence, for many fans of the Nigerian national team, the die is cast, and the senior team will miss consecutive World Cup tournaments.

However improbable, Nigeria’s qualification chances is not yet a mathematical impossibility. And as popular Afrobeats DJ ‘Exclusive’ says, “This is football; anything can happen.”

Here are the conditions necessary for Nigeria to be one of the countries representing Africa at the World Cup next year:

(FIFA’s tweet earlier today stating that South Africa will qualify for the World Cup if they beat Nigeria suggests that a point deduction is not in sight for Bafana Bafana. Hence, the analysis below does not factor that in).

Automatic qualification is guaranteed for all the winners of the 9 qualifying groups. 

Current situation 

• There are only six more points to play for in Group C, the exact number of points in the margin between Nigeria (11)  and Bafana Bafana (17). 

• Benin Republic are also on 11 points but have played a game fewer than Nigeria. This means that a victory for Gernot Rohr’s side against Rwanda will see them leapfrog the Super Eagles in the race to win the group. 

• Goal difference is the first tiebreaker in case two teams finish on equal points, then goals scored, head-to-head, and so on. 

• South Africa have a (+6) goal difference over Nigeria. With 14 goals scored to Nigeria's 9. Benin Republic has a (-2) goal difference to Nigeria and have scored seven goals in total.

Conditions necessary 

For the Super Eagles to qualify via the direct route:

• South Africa must lose their remaining games with enough goals to dent their goal margin.

• The Benin Republic must lose at least one of their remaining three games and continue their current low-scoring form. 

• Nigeria play the Benin Republic; victory in that game sets up the Super Eagles to finish above the Cheetahs. 

• Nigeria must beat the Benin Republic and Lesotho. They must also score enough goals to take them above South Africa for goal difference and goals scored. 

Other than the nine automatic qualification slots, the four best second-place finishers from the nine groups will enter into a playoff round for a chance to make the World Cup. 

Current situation 

• Nigeria currently sit 8th on the rankings of the nine best second-placed teams. 

• (*At the time of writing) They are currently behind Gabon (18), Madagascar (16), Congo (16), Burkina Faso (15), Cameroon (15), Namibia (15) and Uganda (15).

• Nigeria max out at 17 points if they win their remaining two games, meaning they cannot catch Gabon and are effectively competing for three slots.  

• There are third-place teams in other groups like Sierra Leone, Sudan, Libya, Mozambique, Comoros and Liberia, who have more or as many as the Super Eagles and are alive in the second-place race in their respective groups. 

Conditions necessary 

For the Super Eagles to qualify as one of the best second-placed teams:

• Nigeria must collect maximum points in their remaining two games and score enough goals to stay on the safe side of goal difference. 

• Twelve countries must lose two of their remaining games. Those countries are Burkina Faso, Namibia, Senegal, Uganda, Benin Republic*, Comoros, Mozambique, Sudan, Sierra Leone, Guinea-Bissau, Libya, and Rwanda.

• Mali, Liberia, Benin, Tanzania and Guinea must also lose at least one of their remaining games, as per calculations from @Chava_senor on X. 

Nigeria's chances are definitely bleak and their future is out of their hands. The Super Eagles certainly have themselves to blame for their current situation. They have only managed to beat one team, won two games, and have had three different coaches in the qualifiers.