FIFA World Rankings: 4 Ways Teams Gain and Lose Points in SUM Era

Since August 2018, FIFA has been using a new model known as the "SUM" system to calculate the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking.

The new model substituted the earlier time-averaging points system with an Elo-based system that gains or loses points after every international game. The objective was to create a more transparent and fair system that accurately reflects recent team performance and strength.

The SUM system considers a variety of key parameters, i.e., the importance of the match, the result, and the relative quality of the opposing teams in question.

Buried deep inside the FIFA SUM system is an intriguing yet simple formula: P = Pbefore + I × (W – We). Here, Pbefore is the points of a team before a game, I is the importance factor of the game, W is the outcome (win, draw, or lose), and We is the predicted outcome according to the relative merits of the two teams. This formula stipulates that the better teams win more, and when the favorite gets upset, they gain more points than when they beat a weak team.

The predicted result (We) is calculated based on a formula taking into account the point difference between the two squads. Essentially, the greater the gap in ratings between two teams, the less probable the weaker team is expected to win. For example, if a lower-rated team beats a higher-rated team, the lower-rated team increases appreciably in points while the higher-rated team loses an equal amount.

This system fosters equity and competitiveness at every level. Every game matters, and even friendlies have an impact on a team's world ranking. By employing strength of opposition and outcome as the foundation of calculations, the SUM system better mirrors real-time performance than the outdated average model of ranking.

Not every match is the same in the SUM system. FIFA assigns varying levels of importance values (I) to various kinds of game. Friendly games outside of official international windows, for instance, have a low value of 5 for importance, whereas FIFA World Cup matches in the quarterfinal or later stage carry a maximum value of 60. This indicates that major tournament success impacts rankings greatly more than winning in low-stakes friendlies.

By prioritizing games in this way, FIFA motivates teams to perform their best in the most challenging and prestige tournaments. Teams that advance deep into continental cups or the World Cup can benefit greatly in ranking. Yet, teams that base their points only on friendly victories see minimal point gains, emphasizing the importance of competitive games.

Furthermore, FIFA's separation of match stages — i.e., group versus knockout rounds — helps to add complexity in calculation. The wins at the knockout stages are valued more, but loss in them does not entail point deduction, protecting the winning sides from unjust penalty.

Special results from matches like penalty shoot-outs are also taken into consideration by the SUM system. In case a match is decided by penalties, the victorious team gets 0.75 for W instead of 1.0, and the losing team gets 0.5 instead of 0. This reflects the evenness of shoot-outs, with the two teams having already scored equally in regular and extra time.

Another substantial change is to knockout stages in final tournaments. To prevent teams advancing far from losing points for losses in such stages, FIFA ensures that no team loses points for losses in these stages. Regardless of the poor performance or defeat at the hands of a weaker team, the total points remain the same, preventing unfair rank drops.

These conditions add reality and fairness to the game such that fortune-led or borderline results do not overwhelmingly affect a nation's standing. They combine to render the SUM formula more representative of team performance across different match scenarios.

The implementation of the SUM model had several benefits over the FIFA World Rankings. Unlike the old average method, SUM prevents the points from declining with time, and rankings can more accurately reflect form in the current moment. Teams no longer have the ability to control their position by missing games since every game has a measurable effect on their total points.

The second major development is that confederation weighting has been eliminated. The European and South American teams had a greater opportunity to increase in ranking before. With SUM, all nations — regardless of their confederation — now enjoy an equal chance to climb up the table based on merit. This development has standardized the global ranking system and made it fairer.

Finally, host nations benefit under the new regime. Because SUM reimburses for every match played, solid friendly performances can maintain or improve rankings before a tournament. On the whole, FIFA's SUM model has modernized world football rankings, yielding a more transparent, fairer, and more performance-oriented way of evaluating world football power.