Tactical Analysis: How Timothy Ouma's Introduction Gave Harambee Stars Vital Win Over Burundi Ahead of Ivory Coast Showdown

Benni McCarthy’s Harambee Stars upset a couple of disadvantageous conditions to emerge victorious against Burundi in their dead rubber clash that took place in Bujumbura last Thursday.

Stars substitutes proved to be the catalysts, as Ryan Ogam, who has been winning plaudits ever since his goalscoring heroics for the side in August during CHAN 2024 and during September’s qualifying rounds, netted the winner, a belter of a left footed shot from outside the box to give them the win.

The win now sets them up nicely to finish their qualifying campaign on a high against Ivory Coast in Abidjan on Tuesday, as they seek to finish in a respectable third place on 15 points.

Although Ogam is the one that emerged the hero, it probably was Timothy Ouma that changed the dynamics for the side, having started on the bench after an underwhelming display against Gabon in September.

This piece attempts to demystify his role in making sure Stars won the game despite playing in front of a hostile crowd, on an artificial surface and under adverse temperatures in Bujumbura.

Benni McCarthy had opted to start the side in a  4-3-3 formation on paper, with Duke Abuya and Austin Odhiambo being the two free number eights either side of Manzur Okwaro, starting as a defensive midfielder for the tie.

He also handed starting berths to Ronney Onyango and debutant Vincent Harper at full back, with the two instructed to attack whenever possible and hug the line, with William Lenkupae and Adam Wilson tasked to drift narrow and support Michael Olunga.

During build up, Okwaro was a half-back who would drop between the center backs or on the left side of them to create a pentagon shape that seeks to outnumber Burundi’s attackers and drag them out of position.

In attack, both number eights tried to support the three forwards to create a scenario where there were as many bodies overloading the box as possible to get on the end of crosses from Onyango and Harper, but Burundi’s compact off the ball shape made it difficult for Kenya to create clear-cut chances.

Off the ball, Austin Odhiambo joined Olunga in attack in what was a 4-2-4 shape, trying to win the ball back by pressing high.

However, the side looked disjointed and could barely sprint three passes together, despite having the man advantage after Bonfils-Caleb Bimenyimana was dismissed for a bad challenge on Kenya’s Brian Bwire, who had to be subbed off with a head injury after just two minutes of play

One would even have been forgiven for drifting to sleep during the game, and it spoke volumes that Kenya’s only real chance came in the 45th minute, when Wilson attempted a left footed shot into the top left corner of the net from a transitional situation that forced Jonathan Nahimana into an excellent save.

Benni McCarthy saw enough, and opted to take off Harper, who was on a yellow card, for Ouma, with Okwaro reverting to a more familiar fullback role.

The result? More fluidity and forward thinking from the midfield.

The new structure provided greater attacking balance and improved control in central areas.

Okwaro’s deeper positioning formed a rest defence of three with Owino and Sichenje, limiting Burundi’s counter-attacking potential.

Unlike the first half, where Kenya primarily relied on wide play and crosses targeting Olunga, the second period saw a shift towards central penetration and long-range shooting.

With three attack-minded midfielders, Kenya began to combine better between the lines, creating numerical advantages in midfield.

This forced Burundi’s lone striker, Mbanza, to drop deeper, further reducing the hosts’ counter-attacking outlets.

One moment was seen in the 55th minute, when Ouma, despite being the deepest lying midfielder, combined well with Odhiambo and Duke, which pushed them back and even allowed him to attempt a shot from inside their box.

In the build up to Ogam’s goal, it was Ouma who aggressively won the ball back before initiating a sequence of a 12-pass move that eventually led to the winner.

In the end, Kenya were able to hold on to their win and got all the three points in the end, which is a massive confidence boost ahead of their last game against Ivory Coast.

Of course, the nature of that opponent might necessitate a different approach, and Ouma might not even play as significant a role as he did in Bujumbura, but he will be hoping he can make an impact yet again, which will help Kenya consolidate a third place finish, and which will also force him get into McCarthy’s thinking as he continues building a squad for the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations.