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The Argentine has endured a difficult season, but will leave Elland Road with his head held high and little blame ascribed to him
It is a sign of the relentlessness of the news cycle that, even before Leeds United have officially announced the sacking of Marcelo Bielsa, it has already become old hat.
The enigmatic Argentine manager will leave the club under a cloud, with two wins in the last nine matches and a disastrous run of recent results which has seen Leeds concede 18 goals in their last four matches.
It would be a sad end for the 66-year-old who, in 2020, brought the club up from the Championship in triumphal fashion after 15 years in the wilderness. More impressive than the simple fact of their promotion was where he brought the club from and how he did it.
He took a team with an average finishing position of 12th in the Championship, added next to nothing to it in terms of spend (Leeds actually had a negative net spend, excluding loans, in the two seasons before their promotion to the Premier League), and finished third and first in his first two seasons.
Mind, this was a club that had cycled through managers like underwear, at one point appointing 13 in 5 years, with a group of players no one would have looked d at twice. He not only whipped that ragtag bunch into shape, but did so by convincing them they could dominate games and take the action to their opponents.
For three years, the style worked. After bringing Leeds up, he took them to ninth in their first season in the top-flight by fighting fire with fire and being brave both in possession and territorially.
Was it all plain sailing? Hardly. There were a number of bumps along the way, and quite a few spankings dished out but, for the most part, the club faithful understood it was a natural consequence of the ambition with which the team played. Facing superior teams on an equal footing is always going to be perilous, but then again the alternative – shelling up and taking a barrage – is no safer, and is eminently less aspirational and watchable.
What's happened this season then?
Leeds are hovering over the relegation zone after 26 matches, two points clear of 18th-place Burnley who have two games in hand on them, and have only won five matches all season long. This is a stark contrast to last season.
The response to this has been typical, with many blaming Leeds’ style of play for their struggles, blithely ignoring the obvious fact that the selfsame style of play is the entire reason they are even in the division in the first place. No, this requires a little more nuance and information.
By no means is Bielsa blameless, by the way. However, his culpability lies less in his actual coaching than many people think. It is in his human judgment that he has faltered, not in his tactical expertise.
There are three broad issues that have bedevilled Leeds this season.
The first is injuries.
Of course, no club has the monopoly on them, but Leeds in particular have had it quite bad. They have been without Patrick Bamford, their top goalscorer from last season, and influential midfielder Kalvin Philips for a significant portion of the season. The former has started five matches this season, the latter 12.
On top of that, there have been a number of injuries in the heart of the defence. Leeds have been forced to field 15 different centre-back partnerships over the course of the season on account of this, a lot of the time drafting defensive midfielders and full-backs into the centre of the backline to compensate.
Notice the strategic significance of these injuries. They all occur along the spine of the team. If you are a big club, you can shrug that off and still perform because you still have more quality available to you than most of your opponents, but when you are not, already fine margins become even finer, especially when you play such a peculiar style.
So why not change the style then? We will return to this talking point.
The second major issue is transfer strategy.
Simply put, Leeds shot themselves in the foot by not investing in overhauling the squad at the end of last season.
Remember, the squad that Bielsa brought up to the Premier League was not good enough to even challenge in the Championship before he got there. Having worked a miracle to not only get them up, but keep them up with such aplomb, it was important for the club to evolve from what is an ageing squad.
Instead, the club only made two major additions – Junior Firpo, who came in for a problem position, and Daniel James, a long-time transfer target.
Bielsa has to shoulder some blame here, as if he did not believe this group of players had it in them to go again, the club would likely have been more open to strengthening. Ultimately, the Argentine is not given to discussing transfer policy publicly, so no one can know for sure what was(n’t) said behind closed doors. What we do know is that the effect has been disastrous for Leeds. There is a limit to the length of time in which a group can play above its base level of ability; this squad, after three years, is clearly flagging from the effort.
This brings us to the third point, which is connected to the last: mental fatigue.
The reason Leeds have been able to punch above their weight with such an obvious quality deficit is the ultra-intensive style Bielsa demands and enforces. It has allowed them to close the gap to better opponents by, in his words, making them play worse.
However, it takes a huge mental toll.
Bielsa said after the most recent defeat to Tottenham that the physical output of the team had not flagged. In fact, when the players returned for pre-season, they exceeded expectations in their tests, and this is partly what convinced him and the club that this group could go again.
However, it is difficult to measure the mental toll, which is enormous. The goals Leeds have shipped in recent matches confirms this: a litany of errors, runs not tracked. The biggest illustration of this is how they are now considered easy to score against, whereas last season it was thought of as a nightmare to play them.
They still run the same amount and apply the same intensity, but they are that little bit slower in their minds. Again, when you are playing such a high-risk, high-reward style, mental sharpness can be the difference between a well-earned draw and a hammering.
So, we come back to this: why not change the style?
The answer, simply put, is that it is not that simple. To paraphrase a Bielsa gem, if something is easy to dismantle, then it was not built well.
If this Leeds team were able to overcome their own limitations and play a style that many considered to be beyond their capabilities, it is because Bielsa did a fantastic job convincing them, both with words and in his methodology, that they could do it.
That is close to four years of work in training drilling them to play a specific way, to override their instincts and fears and impress their style. And he was supposed to strip all of that away in a few weeks and suddenly start playing a different way?
It makes little sense, and even if it were possible, it would almost certainly make the team even worse. It would be like the clock striking midnight in Cinderella: the chariot would immediately turn into a pumpkin, the horses into mice, and it would become apparent to everyone just how out of place this team is in the top-flight of English football.
Deep down, the club knows this all too well. Which is why they have stuck it out this long.
However, if they have decided to push the button, Bielsa will depart Elland Road with the love and adulation of Yorkshire in his heart, and whatever their ultimate fate with or without him, he will be remembered, above all else, as the man who made a proud city dream again.
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